by John Boch
On March 2nd, we explored the enthusiasm gap between Democrats and Republicans in this primary season. READING THE TEA LEAVES: Hillary’s in for rough sledding, as are all Democrats in November.
In it, I wrote:
“The interest in the primary races this year have been quite telling. Republicans have been turning out in droves to vote, with turnout averaging 61% more than 2008. Democrat participation, on the other hand, has been in the toilet – down by an average of 23% in states so far from 2008.”
I’ve been crunching raw numbers this morning and here’s what I found, comparing the percentage increase or decrease in turnout from the 2008 primaries. (Percentages are missing in states where they haven’t held primaries for the respective parties).
| Rep | Dem | |
| Alabama | 55% | -26% |
| Alaska | 60% | |
| Iowa | 57% | -44% |
| New Hampshire | 20% | -13% |
| Idaho | 77% | |
| SC | 66% | -31% |
| Nevada | 70% | 14% |
| Louisiana | 93% | -19% |
| Arkansas | 274% | 29% |
| Colorado | 1% | |
| Georgia | 34% | -28% |
| Mass | 26% | -3% |
| Minn | 79% | -4% |
| Oklahoma | 37% | -20% |
| Tenn | 55% | |
| Texas | 108% | -50% |
| Vermont | 53% | -13% |
| Virginia | 109% | -21% |
| Kansas | 282% | 6% |
| Nebraska | -13% | |
| Maine | 239% | -1% |
| Michigan | 52% | 98% |
| Mississippi | 182% | -49% |
| Florida | 17% | -5% |
| Illinois | 40% | -3% |
| Missouri | 55% | -25% |
| North Carolina | 97% | -32% |
| Ohio | 95% | -46% |
| Average change | 90% | -12% |
Republicans have been wildly enthusiastic, growing turnout by 90% on average in each state.
Democrat turnout has languished in the toilet, sinking 12% on average.
That’s a 102% differential in enthusiasm, and that’s a substantial increase from the spread after March 1 Super Tuesday, when there was “only” an 84% differential.
In that March 2 piece, I also wrote:
If this trend holds to any significant degree, two things are going to happen.
1. Get used to saying “President Trump”.
and
2. It’s going to be a bloodbath for Democrats all the way down the ballot.
Not only is the trend holding, it’s growing!
Watch for the long knives for Trump in the next few weeks. I expect the palace whores of the RNC and Karl Rove to execute some chicanery to deny Trump the nomination, lose the election to Hillary and go back to the country club lifestyle. Trump is a bigger threat to those elites than they have ever seen. Hopefully this destroys the current incarnation of the republican party, and brings us something better.
Is this another covert “endorsement” of Trump? By my count, there are still 22 states to go, and he is far from having enough delegates. If I recall correctly, he has not gotten close to 50% in any of the states he’s won. Now that Rubio is out, more of the anti-Trump vote can go to Cruz. So, don’t count your chickens before….
This is less about any candidate than the massive enthusiasm gap between Republicans and Democrats.
There’s pretty much one main reason for the Republican turnout, and it isn’t Marco Rubio or Ted Cruz.
John
John,
I wouldn’t be so sure if it was a two man race I think you would find Ted would be winning.
1) He has reached the high 40’s in several states he has won in a field of more than three candidates.
2) It’s pure conjecture to assume everyone voting for candidates other than Trump or Cruz will switch to Cruz.
Note also that Cruz is losing his anti-establishment bona fides. He and his wife have a long history of involvement in the Bush clan, and she now works for Goldman Sachs, one of Ted’s major financiers.
It isn’t a two man race and it’s a joke to think kasich and rubio supporters are all going to rush to cruz.
I love Trump’s new ad with Hillary barking like the bitch she is and Putin laughing. Hillary’s toast.
Here is my prediction: If Trump wins the GOP nomination he will lose the general election.
Do you wanna bet money or guns on that, Ross?
Do you not see a trend here? The cool black guy’s not running this time around. There’s no promised “Hope & Change,” even, this time. It’s same ol’ same ol’ with Shrillary, and she ain’t motivating even the unwashed to get out and vote.
Trump would have to be dead NOT to win.
All I can say is, I pray and hope that I voted for the right guy to, indeed, make America great again. All it would take is the right guy.
Ken,
Do you wanna bet money or guns on that, Ross? No and I hope and pray I’m wrong. I’m a Cruz supporter, that being said if Trump get the nomination I will vote for him and I hope that he lives up to his promises. I have some very serious reservations about Trump and what he would do with the power of the Presidency, he is “new” to a lot of the issues I care about. Now I know people can change their position on issues but Trump’s change is new and has me concerned.
Ross-
Just keep one thing in mind: Hillary’s and Cruz’s positions on everything are determined by the highest bidder. Trump’s are not.
I’m with Ken on this.
It’s Trump’s to lose and I am not sure Hillary’s going to be all that eager to debate him. He’ll chew her up and spit her out.
Assuming she isn’t indicted which I personally feel will happen.
Kasich (sp?) is a Rino loser who has supported gun control schemes at almost every opportunity.
Cruz is a solid conservative. He talks a good game but I’ve seen little in the way of substantive action from him.
Trump is a businessman who does very well. He’s an expert at deal-making. He says he is conservative and certainly loves America, which is more than we can say for Obama.
Trump is the one that has people fired up and excited.
If it weren’t for Trump, it’d just be another presidential race.
Don’t forget that Kasich is financed by George “Black Lives Matter” Soros.
I agree with Ross, Trumpet has been a longtime supporter of the d-crap party buying their “influence” like he knows they can be bought and paid for to represent HIS interests.
That being said, how truthful is he really? He says all the right things to get the trumpites to follow him, much like the 0bamunists voted for their own version of hopey-changey in ’08. “the Donald” has learned politics from his bought and paid for politicians to the point of being mr. super candidate that knows how to manipulate his followers.
“the Donald” is all about “the Donald”, that being said I would have to vote for him over shrillary if it comes down to that, but will hold my nose again as I do.
Hillary for PRISON, TED CRUZ FOR PRESIDENT!!
How well do you really know Ted Cruz?
-Ted held a position at the Federal Trade Commission in Bush’s admin.
-Ted and wife Heidi met as Bush staffers.
-Cruz was an adviser on legal affairs while Heidi was an adviser on economic policy and eventually director for the Western Hemisphere on the National Security Council under Condoleezza Rice.
-Heidi was a top deputy to U.S. Trade Rep. Robert Zoellick (Pres of World Bank, Managing Director at Goldman Sachs where Heidi now works)
-Cruz was given secret $1 million loan from Goldman Sachs to fund his Senate race, and was given another undisclosed $1 million loan from Citicorp.
-Cruz voted for TPP.
I was for Cruz before Trump announced. He’s undeniably sharp and energetic, and he talks a great game. But he’s firmly a part of the establishment.
Ms. bangbang,
the economy did well under G. Bush until the d-craps wouldn’t reform the freddy-may, conny-mack way of “loaning” mortgage money to those who could not afford to repay the “loans” (gifts). The mortgage-kiting scheme finally burst because the properties were not worth the money that was mortgaged to them and those with those mortgages couldn’t repay and just walked away, destroying the housing industry.
G. Bush kept our country safer after 9-11-’01 by taking the fight to the terrorist countries, 9-11-’01 was brought on because slick-willie was so inept at his responsibilities, letting bin-ladin live when our servicemen had him dead-to-rights with help from the Syrians.
Ted Cruz is the only real true bona-fide CONSERVATIVE running for president!
Hillary for PRISON, …TED CRUZ FOR PRESIDENT!
GSL1598 DLM-
Most Americans agree going into Iraq was an expensive blunder. The Patriot Act was signed by Bush. Bush tried but failed to pass amnesty for illegals. While my life was better under Bush than under Obama, that’s like saying at least I wasn’t in last place.
Ted Cruz voted for TPP and was against deportation before Trump. He and his wife have direct ties to Goldman Sachs and therefore are working in their best interest, not the common American’s. How are these positions considered conservative?
We’ve tried it the Bush way and America agrees it’s time for a change.
Cruz is not that change.
ms. bangbang,
America got their “change” with the 0bamunist, …look where it has lead to, the 0bamunists “blamed” any and all things on Bush’s tactics but Bush’s military walked through Irac, tried to set up a democratic government lead by the people. The 0bamunist was the one that failed the people over there as well as our own. It was not a bad thing to eliminate the terrorist saddam insaneHussain, the failure was in the Irac people failing to secure their own country even with all the help afforded them, too many factions working against each other, …. and the terrorist fundamentalists infiltrating the security forces as well.
Cruz part of the “establishment?, yeah, that is why they despise him so, right? the “Trumpiter” is all about himself, he and Hilarity are one side to the same coin, Trump knows all the “right” things to say,…he has bought politicians all his “business life”, he understands how to manipulate people to get what HE wants, ms. “trumpite”.
….BTW, ms. bangbang, since you were/are all about “change” and dislike Bush policies so, did you vote for the 0bamunist twice, or just the first time? Were you one of those who wanted “change” so bad you actually believed the Marxist interloper 0bama? I’d bet you did, now you want the “Trumpeter” with all his lies to follow in the 0bamunist “footsteps”? Why aren’t you “feeling the Bern” like a true socio-communist?
GSL1598 DLM-
Politics isn’t a professional sport. Knowing that Iraq was an expensive blunder and the Patriot Act is un-American in no way indicates a love for Obama. It’s possible to critique “our team” without playing for “their team.”
That being said, neither the GOP or the dems have represented my values since I’ve been old enough to vote. Trump is the first candidate to do so, and this isn’t about GOP vs democrat. This is about nationalists vs. globalists.
I love my country and worry about her future. Can you say the same?
…oh, and commie Bernie for the nearest socialist mental institution retirement home!
In my view Trump = authoritarian demagogue
I want to know why Hillary hasn’t been indicted yet! >=(
Again, this isn’t about Trump vs. Cruz.
This is about how Republicans are energized enthusiastically and how Democrats are disinterested.
I’m not on the Trump train, and I really don’t understand the appeal. If any other candidate had his history, they would be written off as a NY liberal and forgotten about. But because he is a celebrity, that doesn’t matter? It’s pretty clear he has been on both sides of most issues, and it’s clear he will do whatever it takes to close the deal He is just telling people what they want to hear. . I don’t think he can win in November. Hillary, (or whoever runs) already has 47% of the vote baked in, and Trumps negatives are way too high to overcome even that. I hope I’m wrong about all of this, because it looks like we are heading for a Trump nomination.
I think the general thrust of this post has escaped you. It doesn’t matter how many “democrats” there are in America if none of them show up to vote.
That is true ms. bangbang, the d-crap voters are very disillusioned from 7 years of the 0bamunist and they know Shrillary will be more of the same c-rap, they are fed up with the economy not being what the lamestream “media” profess it to be, they are living in the “real world” unlike the lying politicians.
Ted Cruz can still win.
Winning 87% of remaining delegates.
Like that’s gonna happen.
Per Drudge this morning.
CRUZ KEEPS GOING
NEEDS 87% OF REMAINING DELEGATES
Doesn’t matter who wins, we will need FEMA camps for safe spaces.
I was astounded by the numbers in the first article.
The fact that the “enthusiasm gap” has grown by 20% in two weeks should leave the Democrats needing industrial size Depends as they go code yellow and code brown in their shorts involuntarily.
John’s right: With this sort of disparity in turnout, it’s gonna be a BAAAAD election year for Democrats as their chickens have come home to roost.
Not only is Barack the gun salesman of our lifetime, he’s also busy sticking a shiv into the back of his Democrat party as well.
You dance with a snake, you have to expect to get bitten.
Sam
Indeed.
If I was a Democrat, I’d be doing everything I could to get those who vote for a living to the polls this fall… and try to figure out some way to make sure they don’t vote for Trump.
Keep in mind that was probably helped along by the commie stunt in Chicago, and those groups are doubling down this weekend in Arizona and New York. This time they are bring “antifa,” and those guys love to break shit and burn things.
THe more they break things and burn stuff, the more the average American is going to flock to law and order types.
My point exactly. I think Trump’s numbers will go up after this weekend and the “Trump incites violence” meme will have to be retired.
The (possibly incorrect) assumption is that just because there has been a large turnout in the primary, they will all turn out to vote for Trump. How many of those turning out are doing so just because of the state of our country? The majority are still voting for someone other than Trump, and you can’t assume that they would be there for Trump in the general election. Ask Mitt about that. I’ve heard a number of people say that they just won’t vote if Trump is the nominee. What would that amount to nationally?
I think we all thought that there was no way that Blowbama would be voted in for a second term, given what he had already done to the country. Just hope that something similar does not happen this time.
I really think the democrats will be there. The black , the women Will all be out voting for Sillery I don’t think we can win with anybody. If you ain’t black. If you ain’t. Female. They re not gonna vote for anybody else. We. Shoulda put Carson in then we would have had at least a 50% chance. Who put Oblamma. In there ??? And why ?
The (karl) Marxists Alinski-ites, (B. Ayers, Bernadine Dorn, littleDick Durbin, etc.) put the 0bamunist into office with the help of G. Soros’ billions, to spread their Marxist Alinski agenda to get the majority of low-info “voters” on the government dole to maintain their idea of power indefinitely, shame be upon then!
Look at the numbers above. That’s not what they are telling us.
Bang Bang is right, Jackie.
It’s not about what we think, it’s more of what empirical evidence suggests to be the case.
Not only are Democrats NOT there right now, they are really not there – as in 12% fewer showing up to vote this year than in 2008.
There’s no half-arabic guy masquerading as a black guy running. There’s no excitement. It’s two very old white people running on the same old tired Democrat playbook.
And on the Republican side, there’s someone new, vibrant and exciting. There’s also another guy who is a genuine conservative, disliked by the establishment.
There’s a lot of hope and optimism for real, substantive change from supporters of both Trump and Cruz. What’s more, Trump is bringing in all sorts of people from both parties who were disillusioned.
And this has the turnout for Republicans through the roof for Republicans.
Privately, Democrats have to be scared.
This race is shaping up to be 1994 on steroids.
John
John, I think you mean 1984 when everyone was sick of gas lines, 21% interest rates and Jimma Caatur, in that order. the 0bamunist is Jimma Caatur on steroids, I struggled through the Jimma Caatur years and thank God Ronnie Reagan got the country back on track to better economic times. When the economy is well and prosperous, everything else can be tolerated until it gets fixed.
Shrillary for PRISON, …TED CRUZ FOR PRESIDENT!
Bear told me yesterday about this enthusiasm gap: “This is what happens when you rely on lazy people to actually get out and vote for you.”