Yet another peer-reviewed study has been publish in the journal Applied Economics Letters. The research was conducted by economist Mark Gius.
Here’s the abstract:
The purpose of the present study is to determine the effects of state-level assault weapons bans and concealed weapons laws on state-level murder rates. Using data for the period 1980 to 2009 and controlling for state and year fixed effects, the results of the present study suggest that states with restrictions on the carrying of concealed weapons had higher gun-related murder rates than other states. It was also found that assault weapons bans did not significantly affect murder rates at the state level. These results suggest that restrictive concealed weapons laws may cause an increase in gun-related murders at the state level. The results of this study are consistent with some prior research in this area, most notably Lott and Mustard (1997).
It’s not exactly like many others. Gius expounds upon how this one is a little different angle:
The present study differs from this prior research in several ways. First, data for the period 1980 to 2009 is examined; this is one of the longest time periods examined in any research on assault weapons bans or CCW laws. Second, the gun-related murder rate is used as the dependent variable. The use of this crime rate is important because most other studies looked at violent crime rates or homicide rates. Violent crime rate data is not disaggregated into gun-related violent crime and non-gun violent crime, and homicides include justifiable killings and state-sanctioned killings; hence, an analysis using these types of crime rates may result in spurious conclusions.
The conclusion:
The CCW dummy variable is significant and positive, but the assault weapons ban is insignificant. Given that the average gun-related murder rate over the period in question was 3.44, the results of the present study indicate that states with more restrictive CCW laws had gun-related murder rates that were 10% higher. In addition, the Federal assault weapons ban is significant and positive, indicating that murder rates were 19.3% higher when the Federal ban was in effect. These results corroborate the findings of Lott and Mustard (1997). These results suggest that, even after controlling for unobservable state and year fixed effects, limiting the ability to carry concealed weapons may cause murder rates to increase.
emphasis added.
What, no mathemagicians here? No statismatics? Anyone read it? Can anyone explain the numbers?
His Bio says he is a full Professor at the Lender School of Business, Quinnipiac University, Hamden, CT and also served as Department Chairman from 1999-2005.
I hope that means he has tenure, because he is going to get “academically whacked” when the rest of the faculty sees this paper.
In the paper, he defined several variables: one for CCW laws in each state, one for assault weapons laws in each state and one for the federal assault weapons ban. It looks like these variables changed over time as state and federal laws changed.
The CCW variable was set to 1 for “restrictive states” (may issue or no issue). In non-restrictive states (shall issue), he set it to 0.
The assault weapons variable was set to 1 for states with laws regulating assault weapons and to 0 if there were no laws regulating assault weapons.
The federal AWB variable was set to 1 for 1994-2004 and was set to 0 for other years.
Justice Department data for gun-related murder rates for each state were used. He also included data on population age, education, unemployment, income, city/rural population and race in the analysis.
He did a regression analysis to see what was related to the gun homicide data. Anything in table 1 of his paper with three asterisks was significantly related.
He found that restrictive CCW laws, percent rural population, median income and alcohol consumption were all related to gun homicide rates.
The federal AWB and individual state AWBs were not significantly related.
Lott’s studies are again supported by yet another source.